Research Notes

By Eric de Place and Julia Stone

It’s been nearly five years since Shell’s massive ethane cracker launched operations near Monaca in Beaver County, Pennsylvania. The chemical-to-plastics plant was once touted by boosters as a “renaissance” for the region’s economy, but those promises have utterly failed to materialize. 

The latest federal economic data show unequivocally that Beaver County is falling behind the nation, the state, and its neighboring counties by nearly every measure of performance. In fact, after Shell announced plans to build in 2012, the county seems to have gone into an economic slide with absolute declines in GDP, jobs, population, and businesses – the exact opposite of what project backers said would happen. 

By 2040, electric and gas bills for a typical Virginia household could go up by $1,115 annually above inflation due to a collision of inflationary trends, including the rapidly rising price of natural gas for Virginia utilities as a result of surging exports of US-produced gas. Rising electricity demand from Virginia data centers, and the Trump administration’s efforts to slow clean energy development are further contributing to Virginia’s energy affordability crisis.

A tidal wave of new natural gas transmission pipelines throughout the United States could lead to record increases in US natural gas production over the next five years. 104 natural gas transmission pipeline projects are planned or under construction across the United States.

Welcome to the “drill more, pay more” era. The United States has entered a new energy paradigm characterized by rising domestic energy prices alongside rising energy production. Despite record high natural gas production levels, US wholesale natural gas prices (Henry Hub) increased 93% compared to the same period last year. Natural gas prices have more than doubled (up 119% as of April 11. 2025) since election day. US natural gas prices are expected to remain high in 2025 and increase through 2026, despite steadily rising production levels.